Due at Final Exam time, Tues. Dec. 13, 4-6PM
You have selected a dataset to analyze and in Homework 11 have performed exploratory data analysis.
Keep in mind that you are trying to study some aspect of the data and you
will do this by
1) constructing a probability model and 2) computing (by
using simulation) the posterior distribution of your parameter or parameters.
The assignment is to analyze the data. Write a short report on you analysis.
The link to Guidelines for the Written Report gives details.
In summary,
start with an executive summary giving the basic findings.
Then supplement
the summary with a technical report of a few pages describing the data, the
model and methods used,
the choice of priors, the model checking procedures , etc.
Finally, include graphs to help support
you writing, and include the primary code used in the analysis.
Model Checking Procedures are described in Chapter 6.
As part of your analysis,
you should follow the basic technique described in Section 6.3 of posterior
predictive checking.
The technique is to draw simulated values from the posterior
predictive distribution of replicated data
and compare these samples to
your observed data.
A direct display of the data is described in Section 6.2
should be included.